China-US Trade Relations

February 16, 2006 - Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said recently during a routine press briefing, "Imposing pressure or sanctions to solve problems between the two (countries) will not be beneficial for China-US trade relations and will not be beneficial for the United States' interests."

Further commenting on a reporter's question, Qin emphasized, "The remarkable development of China-U.S. relations in recent years demonstrates the comprehensive common interests and the possibility for the two countries to establish cooperation in various fields."

The Chinese embassy in Washington, DC posted a summary of Qin's comments attributing to him the following words, "China-U.S. relations should be evaluated in an 'objective' and 'all-round' perspective." The embassy statement clarified Qin's wording by noting that these descriptions referred "especially (to China-U.S.) bilateral trade relations."

The embassy further emphasized "trade cooperation between the two countries is win-win and mutual beneficiary, not a one-way and bestowed treatment from one side to the another."

Question for the I Ching

What insights can you give me concerning China's recent public statements about China-U.S. bilateral trade relations?

Primary Response – 12 Standstill [ Stagnation ]

7 ---
9 -x-
7 --- above Ch’ien - The Creative, Heaven
6 -0-
8 - -
8 - - below K’un - The Receptive, Earth

The hexagram prior to the one just received is 11 Peace. Hexagram 11 denotes a time of peace and harmony of interests on earth. All living things are blessed. Hexagram 12, however, denotes standstill, stagnation, or obstruction, which according to the chosen interpretation, is the opposite of Peace. When heaven pulls away from the earth there can be no peace. The earth sinks farther into the depths of standstill and decline. Apparently, according to this interpretation, the creative powers of Heaven are not very supportive of evolving China-U.S. bilateral trade relations.

All things on earth will be numbed by the ensuing confusion and disorder when rulers, ministers, and private interests press openly for concessions and reciprocity in their trade negotiations. Dark powers exist within the evolving trade relationships between China and the United States. Inferior people are on the ascent with their dazzling offerings and their would be profitable, long-term lucrative opportunities. Get in now. Don’t miss this once in a lifetime opportunity. Smooth talking hucksters and greedy profiteers feed upon each other’s worst characteristics.

Superior people, nonetheless, must not allow their principles to be compromised in the pursuit of vast revenues in China or the United States. When difficulties inevitably are encountered during trade negotiations, superior people must not forsake their principles just to overcome short-term though ominous obstructions.

The superior way rather encourages people to escape difficulties by falling back upon their own inner worth or resources. Do not risk dishonor or eventual failure by accepting ill-gotten gains or mean-spirited revenues derived from exploiting the fears and confusions existing during this time. Hide your worth. Withdraw from dazzling offers to take part in highly visible, tempting, and purportedly public sponsored or sanctioned activities.

Six in the third place – Turning Point

Inferior people inevitably will rise to power during this time of confusion, disorder, and stagnation. Do not be dismayed by their rise nor duped into supporting their grandiose visions, or their impractical or exploitive schemes. Early during their tenure there will be no humility in these inferior rulers, ministers, or executives. There will be no support from them for, definitely no bearing with, and little to no accountability towards those lower in station or circumstances.

The third line from the bottom is at the top of the lower trigram, and therefore, is in a place of transition. When the arrogance and inadequacies of these inferior people become outwardly obvious to the world, humiliation will befall them. Inferior people begin to be ashamed when they inwardly acknowledge their own inadequacies and shortcomings. Even though they may not outwardly express their shame, these private moments of clarity and personal awareness foretell of a future turning point in China-US trade relations that will lead to better times further ahead.

It is important to note that the early signs of the aforementioned future turning point are highly private and personal. Previously the superior way cautioned Chinese and American business people to hide their worth and withdraw from dazzling profit scenarios where the gains are of dubious social value.

This line of transition now stresses the importance of continuing engagement, friendly negotiations, and bounded enthusiasm. Friendship, mutual respect, and trust are not unbounded, rather there are limits which must be worked out together while facing important and truly challenging obstacles and obstructions. Only then when friendships and trusts are clearly established can superior people know with a higher degree of certainty that the turning point is real, rather than just another hustle played out by a polished, accomplished, and manipulative huckster posing as a ruler, minister, or influential business executive.

Nine in the fifth place – Order Restored

Eventually the right person or ruler capable of restoring order to China-U.S. bilateral trade relations will arrive. Standstill and obstructions will begin to give way to better times, good fortune, general prosperity, and widespread successes. Anxiety, however, is a good emotion to feel now in preparation for that future point in time. If today's ventures are not correct and appropriate, the good ruler will be inclined in the not too distant future to let it fail and let those involved experience the misery and suffering they deserve.

Stagnation eventually will end. The fortune and wealth of a great person will not likely fail during this transition to better times if they are built upon what is good and noble, correct and appropriate, tied securely to the goodwill and needs of the common people, and beneficial to the common earth which we share. While China-U.S. trade relations currently may be labeled as bilateral, these protagonists must and will come to realize their game is not a zero-sum or I-win-you-lose endeavor. The world is watching and is engaged to a greater or lesser extent as circumstances allow.

Great nations of the world have fuduciary reponsibilities towards one another that require special relations of trust and confidence. These supra-responsibilities extend to others in a complex maze of circumstances and interrelationships. China and the United States are still early on in their working out of these relations.

Both nations must come to the negotiating table and to the court of world opinion with an attitude of wanting to establish win-win-win scenarios, or in other words, what is best for all concerned. Bilateral or not China-U.S. trade relations are not just about what conditions are best for China or what is best for the U.S. There are higher stakes at risk. Both countries must acknowledge and accommodate these interdependencies even as they respectively and respectfully consider each other’s position in their agreements.

This fifth line from the bottom signals that the obstructions and standing still by superior people will give way to better times and fortunes. The great ones who work through superior people to bring all people onto the pathway to Heaven, peace, and prosperity will be rewarded because their place or position in the matters dealing with China-U.S. bilateral trade relations are correct and appropriate. Their work is not finished, but their actions are rooted properly and securely so as to avoid failure and gain good fortune in due time.

Inner Hexagram – 53 Development ( Gradual Progress )

9 -x-
7 ---
6 -0- above Sun - The Gentle, Wind, Wood
7 ---
6 -0-
8 - - below Ken - Keeping Still, Mountain

Gradual progress is fundamentally important in the evolution of U.S.-China trade relations. A tree on a mountain develops slowly. Firmly rooted in the earth, its growth is governed by a myriad of internal and external laws. China-U.S. bilateral trade relations likewise must be characterized by gradual progress and step-by-step development.

China and the United States are subject to laws and customs that govern global commerce. China is growing into what many expect to be a huge segment of the world market. World-class infrastructures that can support domestic and international markets like those projected for this emerging country are not quickly built, nor as ready for primetime as some would like to believe.

Clearly, the U.S. is already there as a consuming, producing, financing, and governing force within the world. Some may even say it is a dominant presence that overshadows other countries to the benefit of its own giant corporations who push out smaller, less well-connected, managed, and financed local competitors.

China may represent a new world order that someday economically will relegate the United States to second place. Population size and land mass clearly are in their favor, but modern markets require state-of-the-art technologies, cutting-edge innovations, on-demand sales and deliveries, Internet access and a level of consumerism that inevitably will shake the very foundation of life in rural and urban centers throughout China.

Tranquility is an attribute of both of the trigrams comprising this hexagram. When a person is tranquil he or she is characterized by an absence of emotional agitation. The person calmly accepts the inevitable and remains serene in the midst of turbulence. Tranquility guards against actions that could be characterized as impetuous, hasty, precipitating, reckless, sudden, or without due deliberation. Both countries would be well-served to heed this admonition. Only emissaries should be commissioned who possess the requisite tranquillity and inner confidence required to convey their country's position to their counterparts in the world.

To be sure formalities must be disposed of properly before a marriage takes place. Development must be allowed to take its proper course. Hasty actions are not wise, prudent, or encouraged. The essential factor, however, for each participant in this bilateral relationship is to develop the relationship through the astute and sometimes painful cultivation of one’s own personality. Whether as a Chinese or an American ruler, minister, corporate executive, or small business person casting about on the Internet for business opportunities or customers, the development of events that lead to sustainable profitably must proceed relatively slowly.

On a more macro level, this essential factor indicates that China needs to be more concerned with the cultivation of its own evolving world persona, than it is over any inflammatory comments coming out of Washington, DC. The same can be said for rejuvenated Texas oil barons and a whole host of other American profiteers salivating as Little Red Riding Hood comes skipping down the road.

Tranquility that guards against precipitating actions, and penetration that follows along the lines of prudence and formality, makes development and progress possible. Gentleness that is adaptive, rather than agitation that is insistent, combined with a healthy dose of perseverance or stick-to-it-ness, will achieve the kind of lasting results that will be good for China, the United States, as well as the rest of the world.

Progress must be gradual. Public opinion and the mores of the people of China and the United States must be readied or prepared to embrace this progress of which we speak. Personalities important to the process in both countries need to acquire weight and influence. Careful and constant work on one’s own moral development leads to the kind of power and influence required to navigate successfully in the emerging world economic order characterized by these U.S.-China trade relations.

Changing Conditions – 56 The Wanderer

7 ---
8 - -
7 --- above Li - The Clinging, Fire
7 ---
8 - -
8 - - below Ken - Keeping Still, Mountain

China-U.S. bilateral trade relations typically do not remain cozy for very long. Wanderers who travel in search of understanding, compromise, agreement, business opportunities, or deliverables will not likely have a large circle of acquaintances along the way. One who has few friends is a wanderer. Gruffness, arrogance, overbearing, and condescension toward others should be avoided because they lead to danger, evil intentions, instability, and inferior people.

Furthermore these characteristics tend to provoke misfortune, encourage humiliation, and often lead to penalties and protracted lawsuits. Obviously, none of these consequences are desireable in a personal, business, domestic, or international context. The wanderer succeeds by attending to his own business, keeping to the middle way - avoiding extremes, keeping still - maintaining your inner reserve, and persevering within the limits of the law, your own moral principles and personality, and the exigencies of time and place.

China-U.S. bilateral trade relations are negotiated and articulated at the highest levels of government. All of this posturing with its formalities and grand designs are like the travels of a wanderer with few friends. Success is achieved by small compromises and concessions. Perseverance brings good fortune to the wanderer. Good advice for personal relations. Good advice for U.S.-China bilateral trade relations too.